The pair concluded that Russia’s recession last year was broader and deeper than the official figures showed once the focus is switched to non-military activity. It draws on 15 separate sources including Google searches, airline ticket purchases and house price data.
What about other parts of the economy?Ī CEPR study by the economists Adrian Schmith of the European Central Bank and Hanna Sakhno of the University of Groningen has gone beyond consumer spending to produce a “domestic demand tracker” to measure private sector activity. Spending in shops has fallen 10%, he said, showing that the real economy has suffered a dramatic contraction. The economist Mikhail Mamonov, a sanctions expert based at Princeton and a member of the CEPR, warns against using GDP as a guide to any country directly involved in a war, and especially Russia where the official figures are likely to be massaged. However, this assessment includes military spending – which has soared since the invasion began, particularly after the introduction of conscription for 120,000 civilians last year.
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